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Regional Labour Markets

Regional Employment Forecast 2000 (1993- 1994)

The forecast of regional employment in Germany until the year 2000 was prepared for the Planning Committee of the Intergovernmental Commission 'Improvement of Regional Economic Structure' (see 'Updating the Employment Forecast 2000'). The Commission used the results of the forecast for reviewing its policy regions. The forecast was based on regional time series analyses from 1976 to 1992 adjusted by detailed regional analyses and plausibility checks. For the first time a true ex-post validation of the previous forecast for 1995, which used the same methodology, was possible. The validation confirmed the - formerly only hypothesised - claim that trend extrapolations of regional employment, if they are supported by detailed regional analyses, are significantly more accurate than other methods applied in regional science to date.

Contact: Franz-Josef Bade

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